After months of tensions between Brussels and Washington, the threat of a tariff war appears to have been averted. Last July in Scotland, the meeting between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump led to an agreement setting tariffs at 15% on European exports to the United States. The measure removes the threat of punitive tariffs of up to 50% on numerous European products, including many high-quality agri-food products, but it does not entirely eliminate risks for Made in Italy.

For Europe, the decision represents a necessary truce: a compromise that ensures stability, commercial continuity and predictability for businesses, in exchange for concrete commitments on energy purchases and investments in the U.S. It is a strategy that strengthens trade dialogue and protects the world’s largest economic partnership.

Italian agri-food in the crosshairs

With exports close to €8 billion in 2024, the United States is the main non-EU market for Made in Italy agri-food. However, the new tariffs risk costing the sector over €1 billion: wine could lose up to €290 million, extra virgin olive oil €140 million, pasta around €74 million, while cheeses, already subject to 10–15% tariffs, remain essentially stable.

The introduction of new tariffs comes at an already delicate stage for Italian agri-food. After a positive start to 2025 (+11% in the first quarter), the latest months show a progressive slowdown in exports to the U.S., coinciding with the application of additional tariffs: +1.3% in April, +0.4% in May, and -2.9% in June. If this trend consolidates, it risks turning into a structural collapse of sales.

The role of dairy

With more than €5.7 billion in exports in 2024, dairy ranks as the second-largest category of Italian agri-food. And the U.S. is a key market for Italian cheeses: from major PDO varieties to fresh specialties and stretched-curd cheeses typical of Puglia, increasingly appreciated by American consumers.

The new tariff scenario, however, proves to be a double-edged sword: on the one hand, it offers certainty and the ability to plan exports, avoiding sudden tariff shocks; on the other, it imposes additional costs and competition-related challenges that risk reducing the margins of small and medium-sized enterprises. The challenge is to defend market share without sacrificing competitiveness, turning the new rules into positioning opportunities. American consumers are willing to recognize and pay a premium price for authenticity, quality, tradition, and strong connection to the place of origin: hallmarks of Italian cheeses. These are the most effective weapons against the risk of “Italian sounding” and imitations.

For companies like Caseificio Ignalat, the current scenario can turn into an opportunity for:

1. Planning – A fixed tariff allows for more predictable and secure pricing and distribution strategies, but the volatility of U.S. politics and the depreciation of the dollar against the euro remain critical factors.
2. Diversification – The U.S. remains a strategic market, but companies must seek new high-potential areas, as Caseificio Ignalat is doing with Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. This reduces dependence on the American market while seizing new consumption opportunities.
3. Enhancing quality – In a competitive context, certifications, traceability and craftsmanship are elements that justify the premium positioning and higher price of Italian dairy products abroad, strengthening their reputation.

The US–EU agreement does not erase uncertainties, but it offers a pragmatic solution to avoid a trade war without winners. For Italian agri-food, and dairy in particular, competitiveness is determined not only by price but also by the ability to combine excellence with flexible and forward-looking export strategies.

The goal of Caseificio Ignalat is to continue bringing to international tables the guarantee of an authentic product, the expression of a controlled supply chain and artisanal know-how. This is the key to standing out in complex markets such as the United States.